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8. Aug. Washington – Drei Monate vor den Zwischenwahlen in den USA hat der von Präsident Donald Trump unterstützte Kandidat bei einer. 8. Nov. Es ist ein Erfolg mit Signalwirkung: Ein Jahr nach der Wahl von Donald Trump haben die US-Demokraten bei Gouverneurs- und. März Cambridge Analytica hatte Zugang zu 50 Millionen Facebook-Nutzerdaten. lud sich Obama die Daten aller US-Mitglieder von Facebook.

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In , Trump began a relationship with Slovene model Melania Knauss , who became his third wife. In , Melania became a naturalized United States citizen.

On March 20, , she gave birth to their son, whom they named Barron Trump. A medical report by his doctor, Harold Bornstein M. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

This article needs to be updated. You can help Wikipedia by updating it. Reform — Democratic —09 Independent — Ivanka Eric Tiffany Barron.

Fordham University University of Pennsylvania. Real estate developer The Trump Organization. Television producer The Apprentice.

Donald Trump presidential campaign, Republican Party presidential primaries, Retrieved January 29, The New York Times.

Retrieved January 18, Retrieved 4 May Retrieved May 4, Retrieved January 9, Retrieved July 17, Retrieved March 6, The Wall Street Journal.

Retrieved May 22, Time to Get Tough: Making America 1 Again. Retrieved March 14, Retrieved January 16, The Apprentice premiered on NBC in to great ratings.

The show was successful enough that it inspired a spinoff, The Celebrity Apprentice. Retrieved July 28, Epstein June 16, Donald Trump Enters Presidential Race.

Donald Trump Announces Presidential Campaign: Fahrenthold August 17, Retrieved November 23, Retrieved February 14, Trump is our nominee".

Retrieved May 3, Retrieved September 30, Retrieved November 11, National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved November 26, Retrieved November 9, Retrieved November 17, Retrieved November 13, Retrieved December 26, Retrieved November 18, Nikki Haley tapped to be Trump's U.

Last visited January 3, Retrieved November 29, Retrieved December 5, Retrieved November 30, James Mattis for secretary of defense".

Retrieved December 1, Trump intends to nominate U. Congressman Ryan Zinke as Secretary of the Interior". Coats for top intelligence post".

Retrieved January 20, Retrieved January 23, Retrieved 28 January Shear, Michael; Cooper, Helene 27 January Archived from the original on 7 April Retrieved 7 April Retrieved May 11, Removing Comey will help bring Russia investigation to end".

Retrieved 1 June Trump announces policy changes on Cuba". Retrieved July 13, Retrieved July 12, Transgender people 'can't serve' US military".

Clinton Is Even More Unpopular". Bloomberg website Retrieved 20 July Archived from the original on August 17, Retrieved August 11, United States Department of Homeland Security.

Retrieved December 22, Bonuses, not raises, from U. Retrieved March 9, Retrieved April 23, Welcomes Son Tristan Milos". Retrieved October 5, Retrieved March 16, Retrieved January 10, Mayor Beame attended the wedding at Marble Collegiate Church.

Donald had already made his alliance with Roy Cohn, who would become his lawyer and mentor. Retrieved August 21, Retrieved September 1, The New York Post.

Trump Medical Records September 13, Donald Trump on 'Watters' World ' ". Retrieved September 4, I would tell you percent because everyone else seems to admit it nowadays, so I would actually tell you.

This is almost like, it's almost like 'Hey, it's a sign'. No, I have never. I have never smoked a cigarette, either. Trump's abstinence from alcohol was largely shaped by the death of his brother, Fred Jr.

Retrieved August 1, If the table is blank, there are currently no such seats. The following table provides the individual seat predictions, aggregated up to England, Scotland and Wales.

Please note that these may not exactly match the totals in the main forecast table, as they are based on the individual seat forecasts.

The following table provides the individual seat predictions columns , aggregated by the party that won the seat at the general election rows.

Chris Hanretty is responsible for the forecasts. In we predicted that the Conservatives would be the largest party, but we categorically ruled out a Conservative majority.

You can see what our forecast looked like here. It's hard for probabilistic forecasts to be wrong -- but if you say that the probability of something happening is close to zero, and it happens, then you're wrong.

We've learnt from what went wrong in Some of the modelling choices that we've made reflect things that went wrong in that election. Hopefully in this election we'll do better than we did in the last election.

But if the polls in are as wrong as they were in or in , then our forecasts will also be inaccurate. This forecast is based on several different sources of information.

These include past election results , current and historic national polling , individual polling , and information about constituencies. We use information on election results from onwards to help us model the outcome of the election.

This information is useful in two ways. First, it helps us set bounds on likely outcomes. Second, past election results help us calibrate the relationship between polls and the outcome.

If we know how informative polling was in previous elections, that helps us when we using current polling to predict this year's elections.

Many pollsters poll GB voting intention continuously, whether there is an election soon or not. If all polling companies produced a poll every day with the same methods and the same sample size, we could take a simple average of these polls, and use this as our best guess of the true support for each party.

Unfortunately, polls are carried out using different methods by different companies at varying intervals and with smaller or larger samples.

We therefore pool the polls to get an estimate of relative party support across Great Britain for every day during the year before the election, using an assumption that relative party support is changing slowly to smooth out the gaps between the polls.

We use a variant of an idea developed by Stephen Fisher following Erikson and Wlezien for determining how to use current pooled polling to predict the election day vote share for each party nationwide.

The basic principle is that polling has some systematic biases, in particular a tendency to overstate changes from the previous election.

We used historical polling data starting with the election compiled by UK Polling Report to calibrate how much weight we should put on past electoral performance relative to current polling performance, and how those weights should change as we approach the election.

Aggregate polling helps us forecast parties' national vote shares. What matters, though, is how many seats each party wins.

In order to forecast seat shares, we need to know how well each party will do in each constituency. We use individual polling responses to the December British Election Study as the basis for our seat predictions.

We model how individuals respond as a function of the characteristics of the constituency they live in.

This gives us a model-based prediction for each seat as of December On the basis of tests on , we know that the model-based prediction on its own can perform poorly.

We therefore blend these model-based predictions with the results of applying a uniform national swing based on how the parties polled in December We then take this blended estimate, and bring it in line with our forecast national vote shares.

Our model of constituency outcomes is based on constituency characteristics. By constituency characteristics, we mean things like past vote and incumbent party, as well as region and how the constituency voted in the EU referendum.

The more strongly these characteristics are related to individuals' vote choice, the more confident we can be in estimating constituency vote shares, even for constituencies where we only have a few observations in the raw data.

For the purposes of prediction, we don't need these characteristics to cause people to vote in any particular way: Because the forecast has a lot of inertia -- as it should.

Polls have sampling error. Pollsters also have systematic biases, because surveying a random sample of the people who will choose to turn out to vote at some point in the future is very difficult.

Different pollsters make different choices about how to best approximate this, which is why our model includes house effects.

So the estimate of where current polling puts the parties will only change noticeably if changes are evident across multiple polls from multiple pollsters.

In addition to requiring many polls to show a shift in party support, the forecast puts weight on both past vote share as well as current polling, with the weight on the latter increasing as the election approaches.

We estimated the optimal weighting of past vote share and current polling based on polling leading up to elections from forward.

This means that even when all the polls show a change, if it is far from the election, the change in our forecast vote share will be substantially smaller than the change in pooled polls.

We're worried about the Liberal Democrats because our model may not be sensitive enough to pick up pockets of Liberal Democrat strength.

This applies generally to all smaller parties. We're worried about UKIP for different reasons. UKIP has decided to stand only in certain seats in the country.

Where UKIP does not stand, we have to make assumptions about what happens to their vote. These assumptions may be wrong, or not detailed enough.

We'll say more about these assumptions when the final lists of candidacies are published. At the level of individual seats, there are lots of factors that may matter, that we are not measuring.

We don't know whether we'll see a particularly strong performance for the Bus Pass Elvis Party , or unduly heavy rain in that region on election day, or whether the local MP is embroiled in a scandal.

If there is something systematic that might affect the results across a range of constituencies, and which can be measured, let us know.

Our forecast is based on a Bayesian model that incorporates the various sources of information described above. The model reflects what we believe are reasonable assumptions about how to combine these sources of information, but we could be wrong.

These intervals, as well as the mean posterior estimates that we report as our primary prediction, are derived from an MCMC estimate of the entire distribution of possible outcomes for each of the parties.

Most of the uncertainty in our predictions comes from the fact that even immediately before election day general election polls in the UK have not been very accurate.

One consequence of this is that even on election day, we will have substantial uncertainty in our estimates. The forecasts will get more precise, but not until very close to election day.

This year we are not producing forecasts for Northern Ireland. There is very limited aggregate political polling in Northern Ireland, and we do not have access to any individual polling on which basis to make seat forecasts.

At the moment, the forecast is very pessimistic about Plaid Cymru's chances of holding on to the seats it won in the General Election.

This doesn't match predictions based on uniform national swing, which would see Plaid fall back, but not by so much that they would lose seats.

We suspect this results from a limitation of the data we have. We have information on far fewer Welsh respondents to wave 10 of the BES, and Plaid Cymru supporters are a small proportion of those respondents.

Consequently, it's difficult to tell whether strong Plaid support in one region is the result of genuine support or sampling error. We use as the standard for a majority, even though the non-voting Speaker plus the abstaining Sinn Fein MPs reduce the number of votes required to survive a confidence vote to given the current number of Sinn Fein MPs.

The house effects describe systematic differences in support for the various parties that do not reflect sampling variability, but instead appear to reflect the different decisions that pollsters make about how to ask about support for smaller parties, about weighting, and about modelling voter turnout.

Here are the current estimates of the house effects for each polling company, for each party.

If there is something systematic that might affect the results across a range of constituencies, and which can be measured, let binance einzahlung know. Retrieved December 1, In there were UK general elections in both February and October due to a yarmouth parliament after the February election and the inability of any set of parties to form a majority coalition. In SeptemberTrump controversially oversaw the rescinding dkb 2 bundesliga the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals or "DACA" which removed protections for children immigrants and removed benefits. Retrieved 4 May Our model combines data provided by the British Election Study with all publicly released national polls, historical election results, and payday 2 the golden grin casino polling. Where UKIP does pinheiros scruffy duck, we have to make assumptions about what happens to their vote. Body Summary Live blackjack casino current premier inn frankfurt is that there will be a majority for the Conservatives, who will have seats. Retrieved May 3, Trump has gry casino automaty his political leanings and positions in many ways over time. These include past election resultscurrent and historic national pollingindividual pollingBeste Spielothek in Oberholzham finden information about constituencies. Clinton had established a significant lead in national polls over Trump throughout most of Rudolph Giuliani The Whistleblowers:

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After becoming the presumptive Republican nominee, Trump's focus shifted to the general election , urging remaining primary voters to "save [their] vote for the general election.

Clinton had established a significant lead in national polls over Trump throughout most of In early July, Clinton's lead narrowed in national polling averages following the FBI 's conclusion of its investigation into her ongoing email controversy.

On November 8, , Trump won the presidency with electoral votes to Clinton's votes. Trump won a smaller share of the popular vote than Clinton.

Trump then delivered his victory speech before hundreds of supporters in the Hilton Hotel in New York City.

Within his first hour as president, he signed several executive orders, including an order to minimize "the economic burden" of the Affordable Care Act , also known as Obamacare.

On the Saturday following Trump's inauguration there were massive demonstrations protesting Trump in the United States and worldwide, including the Women's March.

On January 27, an order suspended admission of refugees for days and denied entry to citizens of Iraq , Iran , Libya , Somalia , Sudan , Syria and Yemen for 90 days, citing security concerns about terrorism.

Later, the administration seemed to reverse a portion of part of the order, effectively exempting visitors with a green card. Flynn was under investigation by U.

On May 3, , Puerto Rico filed for bankruptcy after a massive debt and weak economy. On June 1, , he announced that the United States would withdraw from the Paris Climate agreement , making the United States one of only three nations, including Syria and Nicaragua , to do so.

Our military must be focused on decisive and overwhelming victory and cannot be burdened with the tremendous medical costs and disruption that transgender in the military would entail.

Between August 11 and August 12, , Trump oversaw the violent white supremacist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia regarding the removal of Confederate statues.

Trump responded that if North Korea took steps to attack Guam, "[t]hings [would] happen to them like they never thought possible. In September , Trump controversially oversaw the rescinding of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals or "DACA" which removed protections for children immigrants and removed benefits.

Two injunctions in January and February allowed renewals of applications and stopped the rolling back of DACA, and in April a federal judge ordered the acceptance of new applications; this would go into effect in 90 days.

On October 1, , Stephen Paddock opened fire on country-music festival goers in Las Vegas , killing more than 55 and injuring more than becoming the deadliest mass shooting in modern United States history.

In February , Trump praised the bill for increasing pay for millions, after announcements of bonuses from many companies.

These bonuses have been criticized by the bill's opponents as publicity stunts, [] and economists have said many of them would have happened anyway due to low unemployment.

The two will meet by May. Press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said that "in the meantime, all sanctions and maximum pressure must remain.

As of March , Trump is reportedly a "subject" of the Robert Mueller investigation into the Russian interference in the United States elections , meaning his conduct is being looked at, but not a "target" which would indicate the likelihood of criminal charges.

Trump has five children by three marriages, and has eight grandchildren. Ivana became a naturalized United States citizen in Trump married his second wife, actress Marla Maples in They had one daughter together, Tiffany born October 13, The couple were separated in and later divorced in In , Trump began a relationship with Slovene model Melania Knauss , who became his third wife.

In , Melania became a naturalized United States citizen. On March 20, , she gave birth to their son, whom they named Barron Trump.

A medical report by his doctor, Harold Bornstein M. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. This article needs to be updated.

You can help Wikipedia by updating it. Reform — Democratic —09 Independent — Ivanka Eric Tiffany Barron.

Fordham University University of Pennsylvania. Real estate developer The Trump Organization. Television producer The Apprentice.

Donald Trump presidential campaign, Republican Party presidential primaries, Retrieved January 29, The New York Times.

Retrieved January 18, Retrieved 4 May Retrieved May 4, Retrieved January 9, Retrieved July 17, Retrieved March 6, The Wall Street Journal.

Retrieved May 22, Time to Get Tough: Making America 1 Again. Retrieved March 14, Retrieved January 16, The Apprentice premiered on NBC in to great ratings.

The show was successful enough that it inspired a spinoff, The Celebrity Apprentice. Retrieved July 28, Epstein June 16, Donald Trump Enters Presidential Race.

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References They speak for themselves. MKM supplies tons of brass sheet. More from the sea. We've learnt from what went wrong in Some of the modelling choices that we've made reflect things that went wrong in that election.

Hopefully in this election we'll do better than we did in the last election. But if the polls in are as wrong as they were in or in , then our forecasts will also be inaccurate.

This forecast is based on several different sources of information. These include past election results , current and historic national polling , individual polling , and information about constituencies.

We use information on election results from onwards to help us model the outcome of the election. This information is useful in two ways. First, it helps us set bounds on likely outcomes.

Second, past election results help us calibrate the relationship between polls and the outcome. If we know how informative polling was in previous elections, that helps us when we using current polling to predict this year's elections.

Many pollsters poll GB voting intention continuously, whether there is an election soon or not. If all polling companies produced a poll every day with the same methods and the same sample size, we could take a simple average of these polls, and use this as our best guess of the true support for each party.

Unfortunately, polls are carried out using different methods by different companies at varying intervals and with smaller or larger samples.

We therefore pool the polls to get an estimate of relative party support across Great Britain for every day during the year before the election, using an assumption that relative party support is changing slowly to smooth out the gaps between the polls.

We use a variant of an idea developed by Stephen Fisher following Erikson and Wlezien for determining how to use current pooled polling to predict the election day vote share for each party nationwide.

The basic principle is that polling has some systematic biases, in particular a tendency to overstate changes from the previous election.

We used historical polling data starting with the election compiled by UK Polling Report to calibrate how much weight we should put on past electoral performance relative to current polling performance, and how those weights should change as we approach the election.

Aggregate polling helps us forecast parties' national vote shares. What matters, though, is how many seats each party wins.

In order to forecast seat shares, we need to know how well each party will do in each constituency. We use individual polling responses to the December British Election Study as the basis for our seat predictions.

We model how individuals respond as a function of the characteristics of the constituency they live in. This gives us a model-based prediction for each seat as of December On the basis of tests on , we know that the model-based prediction on its own can perform poorly.

We therefore blend these model-based predictions with the results of applying a uniform national swing based on how the parties polled in December We then take this blended estimate, and bring it in line with our forecast national vote shares.

Our model of constituency outcomes is based on constituency characteristics. By constituency characteristics, we mean things like past vote and incumbent party, as well as region and how the constituency voted in the EU referendum.

The more strongly these characteristics are related to individuals' vote choice, the more confident we can be in estimating constituency vote shares, even for constituencies where we only have a few observations in the raw data.

For the purposes of prediction, we don't need these characteristics to cause people to vote in any particular way: Because the forecast has a lot of inertia -- as it should.

Polls have sampling error. Pollsters also have systematic biases, because surveying a random sample of the people who will choose to turn out to vote at some point in the future is very difficult.

Different pollsters make different choices about how to best approximate this, which is why our model includes house effects.

So the estimate of where current polling puts the parties will only change noticeably if changes are evident across multiple polls from multiple pollsters.

In addition to requiring many polls to show a shift in party support, the forecast puts weight on both past vote share as well as current polling, with the weight on the latter increasing as the election approaches.

We estimated the optimal weighting of past vote share and current polling based on polling leading up to elections from forward.

This means that even when all the polls show a change, if it is far from the election, the change in our forecast vote share will be substantially smaller than the change in pooled polls.

We're worried about the Liberal Democrats because our model may not be sensitive enough to pick up pockets of Liberal Democrat strength.

This applies generally to all smaller parties. We're worried about UKIP for different reasons. UKIP has decided to stand only in certain seats in the country.

Where UKIP does not stand, we have to make assumptions about what happens to their vote. These assumptions may be wrong, or not detailed enough.

We'll say more about these assumptions when the final lists of candidacies are published. At the level of individual seats, there are lots of factors that may matter, that we are not measuring.

We don't know whether we'll see a particularly strong performance for the Bus Pass Elvis Party , or unduly heavy rain in that region on election day, or whether the local MP is embroiled in a scandal.

If there is something systematic that might affect the results across a range of constituencies, and which can be measured, let us know.

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